Iran: SCI Reports Consumer Price Changes in Goods, Services Groups
EghtesadOnline: The consumer price index of all 12 groups of goods and services increased in the Iranian month of Shahrivar (Aug. 23-Sept. 22), the Statistical Center of Iran reported.
Yet, the two groups of “recreation and culture” and "tobacco products" saw the highest month-on-month and year-on-year rises in their CPI at 12.3% and 117.3% respectively.
“Recreation and culture” and the “foods and beverages” group experienced the highest average inflation of 13.9% for the 12 months to Sept. 22.
Year-on-year inflation for the former group stood at 40.6% while the latter recorded MOM and YOY inflation rates of 6.3% and 34.3% respectively, Financial Tribune reported.
The "tobacco" group saw MOM inflation of 8.4% and an average annual inflation of 33%.
According to SCI, the overall goods and services Consumer Price Index in Iran for the month ending Sept. 22 registered a year-on-year increase of 25.7% compared with the similar month of last year.
The average CPI in the 12-month period ending Sept. 22 increased by 11.3% compared with last year’s corresponding period.
The overall CPI (using the Iranian year ending March 2017 as the base year) stood at 134.6 in Shahrivar, indicating a 5.4% rise compared with the previous month.
SCI put urban and rural 12-month average inflation for Shahrivar at 11.4% and 10.7% respectively. CPI reached 134.4 for urban households and 135.5 for rural households, indicating an increase of 5.3% for urban areas and 5.8% for rural areas compared with the previous month.
The index registered a year-on-year increase of 25.7% for urban areas and 26.1% for rural areas compared with the similar month of last year.
The Central Bank of Iran, another body that releases reports on inflation in Iran, has yet to publish its own data, which often differ from that of SCI, for the month under review.
The “education” group posted the slowest MOM and YOY rises in its CPI with 1.2% and 14.2% respectively.
The "communications" group saw the slowest average annual inflation growth of 6.4%.
The consumer price index increased from 116.2 to 134.6 or around 16% over summer (June 22-Sept. 22).
According to data provided by the Statistical Center of Iran, the second quarter’s inflation was the largest quarterly figure registered by the Iranian economy thus far, the Persian daily Donya-e-Eqtesad reported earlier this week.
The summer saw month-on-month inflation rise by 4.5%, 5.2% and 5.4% consecutively.
To predict the underlying inflation trend, Donya-e-Eqtesad outlined the following three hypothetical scenarios:
First Hypothesis: The average monthly inflation in the first half of the year was 2.6%. If the CPI continues to increase by 2.6% per month for the rest of the year, the year-on-year inflation would grow by at least 36% and the 12-month inflation will increase by more than 22% in the final month of the year.
Second Hypothesis: The rise in consumer price inflation of the first half of the year was chiefly fueled by CPI growth of Q2. If that is altered and the inflation rates of the second half of the year register a growth rate similar to that of theQ1 average (4.3%), the CPI is expected to hit 146.4, the year-on-year inflation to increase more than 31% and the average annual inflation will go beyond 21%.
Finally, the third hypothesis posits that prices continue to rise just like they did during summer. The average monthly inflation growth was 5% in Q2.
Imagine that CPI grows by 5% as of the Iranian month ending Oct. 22. By the end of the year (March 20, 2019), CPI would reach 181, year-on-year inflation rate will increase to around 62% and the average 12-month inflation could stick around 30%.