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EghtesadOnline: Iran’s oil exports could fall by as much as two-thirds by the end of the year because of new US sanctions, putting oil markets under huge strain amid supply outages across the world.

Energy consultancy Facts Global Energy thinks Iran’s crude exports could fall to only 700,000 bpd because of sanctions, Reuters reported.

FGE is a preeminent global oil and gas consultancy which provides leading independent research, analysis, consultation, and advisory services to a large and diverse client base across the world.

India, which imported an average of 550,000 bpd of Iranian oil in the first half, has yet to make an official announcement. However, its state-owned refineries have been told to prepare to find alternative supplies, if Washington grants it no waivers to sanctions, Financial Tribune reported.

South Korea and Japan, which together imported around 370,000 bpd of Iranian crude during the first half of 2018, have said they would stop imports unless they get a US waiver.

South Korea’s imports of Iranian crude were down 40% in June from the same month a year ago, customs data show.

Japan’s biggest bank, MUFG Bank Ltd, will halt all Iran-related transactions to comply with the imposition of US sanctions, according to a document seen by Reuters.

China, the biggest single importer of Iranian oil at 650,000 bpd according to trade flow data in Thomson Reuters Eikon, may ignore US sanctions and keep importing.  Europe accounted for the biggest chunk of Iran’s oil exports in the first half of the year, with Italy and Turkey being top importers.  Several refiners already stopped their purchases of Iranian crude after Swiss lender Banque de Commerce et de Placements said it would stop financing Iranian cargoes by June 30. Refiners in Greece and Spain have already started slashing their imports of Iranian crude.  But key buyer Turkey said it would not cut off trade ties with Iran.


Oil Markets Iran oil exports US sanctions