EghtesadOnline: Iran’s population will get increasingly older over the next two decades. Last year (March 2017-18), 6.1% of the population were over 65 years.
In 1400 (March 2021-22), 1405 (March 2026-27) and 1410 (March 2031-32), the share is estimated to rise to 6.7%, 7.9% and 9.3% respectively. Iran’s 65-and-over population is projected to comprise 11% of the total population in 1415 (March 2036-37), according to a report by the Statistical Center of Iran.
Using results from integrated population modeling, which combines demographic and survey data into a single, comprehensive analysis and provides more coherent estimates of vital rates, SCI predicted that Iranians of ages up to 14 would account for 24.6% of the total population in 1400. They will make up 23.7% of the population in 1405, 21.6% in 1410 and 19.7% of the total population in 1415 from 24.3% in 2017-18.
By 1400, the proportion of the population between 15 and 29 years is expected to make up 20.6% of the total population. They will make up 19.6% of the total population in 1405, 20.8% in 1410 and 21.8% in 1415 from 23.9% in the fiscal 2017-18, according to Financial Tribune.
The population of 30-64 age group accounted for 45.6% of the total population. SCI projected that they will constitute 48.1% of the total population in 1400, 48.8% in 1405, 48.3% in 1410 and 47.5% in 1415.
The latest national census was carried out nationwide from September 24, 2016, in two stages of online and door-to-door registration, Mehr News Agency reported.
The door-to-door phase, which was the second phase, ended on Nov. 18.
The census put Iran’s population at over 79.92 million—about 4.77 million more compared to the previous figure registered by the census conducted in the Iranian year ending March 20, 2012.
It put the number of men and women at 40,498,442 and 39,427,828 respectively, meaning the sex ratio stood at 103:100. The previous census put the ratio at 102:100.
“Of the total 79,926,270 Iranians or 24,196,035 households, 59,146,847 or 18,125,488 households live in urban and 20,730,625 people or 6,070,547 households live in rural areas. The urban population shows an increase of 5,500,186 and the rural population has decreased by 772,383 compared with the 2011-12 national census,” the head of Statistical Center of Iran, Omid Ali Parsa, was quoted as saying by Mehr News Agency.
Parsa noted that the number of households in urban and rural areas increased by 2,697,640 and 312.748 over the same period of the previous year respectively.
“At present, an average of 3.3 people lives in each Iranian household. The figure for urban and rural areas is 3.3 and 3.4 respectively. This shows a decrease compared with five years ago when the number of people per household reached 3.5 for urban and 3.7 for rural areas,” Parsa added.
It also showed that between 2011 and 2016, the average life expectancy at birth for Iranian men and women improved by 1 and 1.5 years respectively.
Iranian men had an average life expectancy of 72.5 while women had a life expectancy of 75.5 years.
The life expectancy at birth for urban males and females was 72.7 and 75.7 and those of rural males and females were at 71.7 and 74.7 years respectively.
Life expectancy at birth compares the average number of years to be lived by a group of people born in the same year, if mortality at each age remains constant in the future. Life expectancy at birth is also a measure of overall quality of life in a country and summarizes mortality at all ages.
The census showed the median age of the Iranian population had risen to 31.1. The figure stood at 25 years in the fiscal March 2006-7.
Female median age in Iran was 31.3 and male median age was 30.9. About 44.8% of the Iranian population were between 30 and 64 years.