EghtesadOnline: Dr. ‘Daniel Joyner’ Professor of Law at University of Alabama said that there is a huge momentum for foreign banks and companies to invest in Iran and the new US president cannot backtrack JCPOA.
Speaking with IRNA, Dr. Joyner added that in the worst case scenario, the new US president could only put a dent in the momentum, but it cannot stop the better economic climate.
'I think there has been tremendous achievements, in bringing the two sides together,' Joyner said in response to question the JCPOA's achievements for Iran and the west.
He went on to say that Iran undertaken very important steps to send uranium out of its territory to shelve most of its centrifuges to reconfigure the Arak heavy water facility.
'There are all things that of course Iran was willing to do for a long time but finally with the right deal they have done so,' Joyner added.
He said that the US sanction lifting has also been significant as a lot of the deals that are now starting to proceed would not have been possible without both the US and the EU lifting sanctions; but also most importantly the UN security council’s lifting of its multilateral sanctions.
'I do think that overall this is a great thing for Iran. It will allow for a future in which business deals and investment flows in and out of Iran are able to be done in much better that they were before,' Joyner added.
Asked whether he thinks the future holds a positive perspective for relationship between Iran and the West, he responded, 'This is a broader question; regarding the nuclear tension I do think that decreased dramatically. That in itself is hugely important. That was something that was a great difficulty between Iran and the rest of the world. '
He said that broader diplomatic relations will depend on a lot of other factors, 'Right now, the war in Syria is a very divisive issue with the US, western countries over one side and then Iran and Russia on the other side. I cannot predict the broader diplomatic trends but I would say the JCPOA goes a long way towards putting away an issue that could have become a crisis. I do believe that the JCPOA, will be successful if it is abided by all parties.'
In response to a question about the possible violation of the JCPOA by the new US government, Joyner said that the worst case scenario would be if Donald Trump becomes president and the republicans are still in control of Senate, the danger would be that through legislation, new sanctions would be applied to Iran that would head backwards towards extra territorial secondary sanctions on foreign banks.
'That does not necessarily mean that foreign banks (European banks, Asian banks) would go back to pre-JCPOA. The horses are out of the stall. We cannot go back to the pre-JCPOA sanction reality for Iran. I think the European companies and banks will forge ahead in investing in the Iranian economy. But if we are going to see an aggressive legislative effort by the new US president, it could put a dent in the momentum but I don’t think that it would stop the better economic climate,' he added.
Asked how long would the European countries hold on to the JCPOA if the US president turns aggressive towards Iran, Joyner said that US domestic order of law cannot stop European Businesses and banks to do business with Iran; yes, the US is the global economic power and there are inter-relationship in the banking system; even if the US decided to aggressively re-impose sanctions, 'I think that still the European companies and banks would invest in Iran at levels that they have not for a long time'.
He went on to say that what was multilaterally holding that back were the UN security council's sanctions that are gone and 'I do not anticipate that those are coming back'.
Joyner said that the European companies, did not support the multilateral Iran sanctions for years leading to JCPOA, but they just didn’t have the political ability to get the UN security council sanction remove.
'So I think there is no way we are going back to pre-JCPOA. the US cannot stop European countries, businesses, Asian companies and businesses from doing business with Iran,' he added.
Asked about Iran's possible options if the US violates JCPOA, he responded that JCPOA is not a legal obligation; so even if the US decided to disregard it, there is nothing that Iran could do about that, but also there is nothing that Iran need to do about it; because since the multilateral sanctions have been lifted and 'I do not see the European countries re-imposing those sanctions, Iran doesn’t have to do anything'.
Joyner said that they can deal with countries other than the US.
'I acknowledge that the US exterritorial sanctions do have influence but I don’t think we can say that there is any going back,' he added.
Asked is it right that there is definitely no going back to the pre-JCPOA even if the US violates this, Joyner said, 'If the US and security council sanctions were to be re-imposed, but the European countries want to do business with Iran they will still be able to so and it will still be better than before the JCPOA.